A recent forecast by International Data Corporation (IDC) has shown that the Android operating system (OS) will maintain over 85% of the smartphone market share at the end of 2016.
IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker says the dominance of the smartphone market by Android is as a result of the frequent innovation by smartphone vendors and telcos which has improved user experience of smartphone consumers.
“From a technological standpoint, smartphone innovation seems to be in a lull as consumers are becoming increasingly comfortable with ‘good enough’ smartphones. However, with the launch of trade-in or buy-back programs from top vendors and telcos, the industry is aiming to spur early replacements and shorten lifecycles. Upcoming innovations in augmented and virtual reality (AR/VR) should also help stimulate upgrades in the next 12 to 18 months,” says said Jitesh Ubrani, Senior Research Analyst with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers.
According to IDC, the latest release of Nougat and Google’s ongoing ambition to secure Android will help the OS secure a better footing in the commercial segment. Overall Android’s ASP is set to remain flat in 2016 ($217) compared to last year and will decrease to $190 by 2020.
[quote font=”georgia” font_size=”22″ font_style=”italic” align=”left” arrow=”yes”]From a technological standpoint, smartphone innovation seems to be in a lull as consumers are becoming increasingly comfortable with ‘good enough’ smartphones. However, with the launch of trade-in or buy-back programs from top vendors and telcos, the industry is aiming to spur early replacements and shorten lifecycles. [/quote]IDC sees Google’s introduction of Daydream and Project Tango into Android helping to usher in new use cases and will help participating hardware vendors to offer differentiated experiences in the premium segment.
For the iOS, the operating system used by iPhones, IDC says iPhone will experience its first full-year decline in worldwide shipments in 2016, adding that the decline will be as a result of the rumor that there will be a significant hardware refresh by the manufacturer, and will remove the headphone jack by 2017, the tenth anniversary of the iPhone.
However, IDC does expect a rebound in 2017 and beyond as it also says that iPhones will reach nearly a quarter billion units shipment in 2020.
IDC also anticipates further decline in Windows Phone’s market share throughout the forecast. Although the platform recently saw a new device launch from one of the largest PC vendors, the device (like the OS) remains highly focused on the commercial market. Future device launches, whether from Microsoft or its partners, are expected to have a similar target market.
The Table below shows the worldwide smartphone shipments by OS, Market Share, and Annual Growth.
|Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by OS, Market Share, and Annual Growth (shipments in millions)|
|Platform||2016 Shipment Volume*||2016 Market Share*||2016 YoY Growth*||2020 Shipment Volume*||2020 Market Share*||2020 YoY Growth*||5 Year CAGR*|
|Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, September 1, 2016|
IDC is a global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. The IDC Tracker products provide information on market size, vendor share, and forecasts for hundreds of technology markets from more than 100 countries around the globe