Telecoms companies in Nigeria are expected to add about 45 million new subscribers over the next five years into 2017, according to a new market forecast.
Business Monitor, a market research consultancy expects the trend of network expansion underway among Nigerian telecoms companies to continue over the medium term as the market is forecast to add around 45million new subscribers in the five years to 2017.[blockquote right=”pull-right” cite=”Business Monitor”]“After a wave of regulatory penalties, including fines and a ban on promotions, Nigeria’s mobile operators have announced plans to expand and upgrade their networks to cope with strong subscriptions growth and increasing data usage. Meanwhile, consolidation and, subsequently, transition to LTE technology appears to be a growing trend among tier two telecoms service providers in Nigeria”, according to the forecast. [/blockquote]
“After a wave of regulatory penalties, including fines and a ban on promotions, Nigeria’s mobile operators have announced plans to expand and upgrade their networks to cope with strong subscriptions growth and increasing data usage. Meanwhile, consolidation and, subsequently, transition to LTE technology appears to be a growing trend among tier two telecoms service providers in Nigeria”, according to the forecast.
Business Monitor has just released its latest analysis on Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Investment Opportunities in their new whitepaper ‘Sub-Saharan Investment Opportunities in Telecommunications: Risk/Reward Analysis’.
The whitepaper includes Business Monitor’s country comparative risks and rewards ratings tables for the telecoms industry in each country, as well as specific analysis on three countries of interest within the region – Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa – including key data and the latest trends and developments.
A snapshot of the whitepaper:
Business Monitor sees the market trend in Nigeria as a positive development as, through consolidation, tier-two operators are able to gain scale for bigger network deployments while the transition to LTE should enable them to compete better with 3G HSPA+ offerings from the GSM operators.
On the other hand, Kenya’s mobile operators will prioritise high value services over aggressive network expansion into underserved areas to improve their profit margins, according to the forecast.
“This view is supported by the first ever quarterly contraction in the country’s mobile market during Q113 following the deactivation of unregistered lines, a development that underscores sluggish new subscriber acquisition.”
Business Monitor expect Orange’s tower deal with Eaton to open the market for tower sharing services, which should benefit from operators’ need to improve cost efficiencies.
In a similar vein, intense competition in South Africa’s mobile market due to increasing market saturation and cuts to the mobile termination rate (MTR) is taking its toll on mobile ARPUs, with available data showing a sharp decline in ARPUs in H113.
As there is no end in sight to the ongoing price competition in the basic voice segment, Business Monitor expect mobile network operators to increase their focus on non-voice services, including mobile data and corporate solutions, in order to sustain revenue growth.
“The continued delay in the implementation of local loop unbundling (LLU) in the fixed-line sector poses a downside risk to investment and growth fixed voice and data services”, according to the forecast for the South African telecoms market.