Nigeria’s explosive growth in telephony access is spotlighting a national transformation that challenges claims by Dr Akinwumi Adesina, outgoing African Development Bank (AfDB) President, that Nigerians are worse off today than in 1960, according to the Presidency.
Mr Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser on Information and Strategy to President Bola Tinubu, in a statement issued in response to Dr Adesina’s recent comments, is debunking the economic comparison made by the AfDB chief, arguing instead that real-world indicators like the rise of digital inclusion and mobile telephony reflect national progress unmatched in 1960.
“We have phenomenal access to telephones,” Onanuga says. “At Independence, we had just 18,724 operational phone lines for about 45 million people. Today, over 200 million Nigerians enjoy near-universal access to mobile phones and digital services.”
Presidency: Nigerians have phenomenal access to telephony
“We have phenomenal access to telephones,” Onanuga says. “At Independence, we had just 18,724 operational phone lines for about 45 million people. Today, over 200 million Nigerians enjoy near-universal access to mobile phones and digital services.”
His remarks follow a report quoting Dr Adesina as claiming that Nigeria’s GDP per capita was $1,847 in 1960, compared to $824 today—a view Mr Onanuga says contradicts historical economic data and ignores broader indicators of national development.
“According to available data, our GDP in 1960 was $4.2 billion and per capita income for a population of 44.9 million was just $93—ninety-three dollars, not even one hundred,” Mr Onanuga notes.
He explains that Nigeria’s economic expansion truly began in the 1970s, driven by rising oil revenue. GDP climbed to $12.55 billion in 1970, hit $64.2 billion by 1980, and soared to $164 billion in 1981. Even then, per capita income did not exceed $880 until 1981, when it briefly reached $2,187 before dipping again the following year.
“In 2014, after the economy was rebased, per capita income peaked at $3,200,” he adds, raising questions about how Adesina arrived at his comparative data.
While acknowledging Dr Adesina’s credentials as a “respected African banking president,” Mr Onanuga argues that GDP per capita alone is an insufficient tool for assessing how well people live.
While acknowledging Dr Adesina’s credentials as a “respected African banking president,” Mr Onanuga argues that GDP per capita alone is an insufficient tool for assessing how well people live.
“GDP masks many aspects of economic reality. It doesn’t reflect income inequality, informal economic activity, or social progress in healthcare, education, and infrastructure,” he says.
Indeed, Mr Onanuga says that Nigerians today enjoy better access to essential services, including schools, hospitals, road networks, air and rail transport, and most notably, digital communication technologies.
He cites a real-world telecoms case study to reinforce his position: when Vodacom considered entering Nigeria in 1999 or 2000, consultants, relying on GDP data, advised against it, believing Nigerians were too poor to afford GSM services.
“They were wrong. MTN and others came later and laughed all the way to the bank,” Onanuga notes. “More than 20 years later, they are still laughing.”
Today, MTN Nigeria, in its Q1 2025 results, posts N1 trillion in revenue and reports an 8.2% increase in subscriptions, reaching 84 million users—a testament, Mr Onanuga argues, to rising digital inclusion and consumer purchasing power.
“Does this MTN experience correlate with a country worse off than in 1960, when we had analogue telephones and fewer than 20,000 lines?” he asks.
He explains further that, “MTN and other adventurers came later, and they laughed all the way to the bank. More than 20 years later, they are still laughing despite some setbacks in 2023 and 2024. In its first-quarter results this year, MTN declared revenue of N1 trillion and an increase of 8.2 percent in subscriptions, which took the number of its voice and data users to 84 million. Does this MTN experience correlate with a country worse off than in 1960, when we had analogue telephones and the number of lines was fewer than 20,000?”
According to Mr Onanuga, “When Vodacom, a telecommunications company, considered entering the Nigerian market in 1999 or 2000, its consultants, using the available GDP metrics, advised against it. They believed that Nigerians were too poor to afford GSM services. However, MTN and other companies that entered the market later proved them wrong, demonstrating that GDP figures alone do not provide a complete picture of a country’s economic potential or the living standards of its people.”
He explains further that, “MTN and other adventurers came later, and they laughed all the way to the bank. More than 20 years later, they are still laughing despite some setbacks in 2023 and 2024. In its first-quarter results this year, MTN declared revenue of N1 trillion and an increase of 8.2 percent in subscriptions, which took the number of its voice and data users to 84 million. Does this MTN experience correlate with a country worse off than in 1960, when we had analogue telephones and the number of lines was fewer than 20,000?”
The presidential adviser says the informal economy, which remains largely invisible to GDP measurements, continues to play a massive role in Nigeria’s economic resilience and is often underestimated.
“Policymakers know that whatever GDP figure the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) publishes may not fully capture the depth of our economy if it omits the informal sector, which some pundits believe may even be larger than the formal one,” Mr Onanuga adds.
He urges a holistic evaluation of development progress, not just by GDP measures but by real-life changes that reflect quality of life, infrastructure, and economic opportunity.
“No objective observer can claim that Nigeria has not made progress since 1960,” Mr Onanuga says. “As we await the NBS’s recalibration of our GDP, we can comfortably say it is at least 50 times, if not 100 times, more than it was at Independence.”
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