Video: How Microsoft Prediction Lab knows ‘which political candidate will win election’

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The Microsoft Prediction Lab also offers games in which you “bet” points to vote on a specific issue. To play, you must first register (free via Microsoft, Facebook or Google). Then, you have 100 points that you can use to predict what will happen in the future, such as which political candidate will win in an election. Future topics may include science and technology, foreign affairs, and social issues.

“A prediction on an unlikely answer will get you a big reward if the answer is right, while a prediction on an outcome that the crowd thinks is likely will yield smaller rewards. If the answer you select is not correct, your prediction is worth 0 points,” the lab’s website says.

The lab is the brainchild of economist David Rothschild, Miro Dudik, and their colleagues at Microsoft Research.

In this video, David Rothschild explains how the Microsoft Prediction Lab works:

Video credit: Microsoft Research